Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks Friday October 24, 2025

Posted 14 hours ago by Chicho Lily

Santa Anita Racetrack — Horse Racing Picks for Friday, October 24, 2025

Race 1

Santa Anita, race 1, 8 furlongs, turf (firm), $25,000 claiming N3L 3 yo and up

PP HORSE; AGE-SEX; JOCKEY; TRAINER; M/L ODDS; LAST 5 BEYER AVG; EARLY PACE—LATE PACE; % CHANCE TO WIN.

1 DAKOTA COUNTRY; 4-G; A Fresu up; D O’Neill trainer; 5-2 M/L; 76.6; 64—99; 29%.
3 SMOOTH SALUTE; 5-G; H I Berrios up; A P Marquez trainer; 7-2 M/L; 77.8; 56—98; 24%.
7 HAWKER; 5-G; U Rispoli up; G Papaprodromou trainer; 2-1 M/L; 70.2; 117—57; 20%.
6 UNCHARTED; 4-G; D A Herrera up; V Belvoir trainer; 8-1 M/L; 66.8; 67—95; 12%.
4 MCCLUSKY; 4-G; K Kimura up; V Belvoir trainer; 5-1 M/L; 69.8; 74—87; 9%.
2 INVINCIBLE; 4-G; T C Baze up; R Hanson trainer; 6-1 M/L; 77.2; 107—58; 5%.
5 RHINO; 5-G; L Camacho-Flores up; R DeLeon trainer; 50-1 M/L; 46.2; 96—42; 1%.

DAILY RACING FORM BLURB: Seven days after he crushed a N2L claiming turf sprint by five lengths, 1 DAKOTA COUNTRY wheels back in a N3L claiming turf route and stretches to a mile. He can stay two turns; he won a maiden-claiming turf route early this year. If he runs as well this Friday as he ran last Friday, ‘COUNTRY can win again from off the pace. Trainer Doug O’Neill won with 4 of his last 12 starters running back in a week or less. 7 HAWKER is the speed and facing easier than last out when he finished ninth. HAWKER wired a N2L claiming turf mile two back. However, he faces a stretch-out sprinter in post 2 that will keep him company. Still, HAWKER might be the speed of the speed. 3 SMOOTH SALUTE drops in class and will rally late in a race that could set up for his closing kick. 2 INVINCIBLE is the aforementioned stretch-out sprinter that will keep HAWKER honest.

PACE AND SHAPE OF THE RACE: 7 HAWKER is the fastest early and should try to clear from the outside; 2 INVINCIBLE has the next-best early foot and can hold inside position; 5 RHINO adds pace pressure. 4 MCCLUSKY tracks just behind. 1 DAKOTA COUNTRY, 3 SMOOTH SALUTE, and 6 UNCHARTED own the strongest late kick and will look to settle mid/back and make one run. With the rail at 30 feet, saving ground matters; if 7 crosses and relaxes, he can control. If 2 keeps the rail and forces 7 to work, a contested midrace could tilt the race to 1/3/6 late. Expected shape: 7–2 up front, 4 in the pocket, 5 pressing outside, 1/3/6 launching into the stretch.

MOST LIKELY WINNER: 1 DAKOTA COUNTRY owns the race’s best late kick (TimeformUS Late 99) and draws perfectly to exploit it. With 7 HAWKER and 2 INVINCIBLE likely forcing a contested pace, his style—settle, save ground, pounce—fits the projected flow, especially with the rail at 30 feet favoring inside trips. His recent Beyers stack up right around par and trending steady (e.g., 80/79/76), and he’s proven at a mile on firm turf. The quick turnaround is a feature, not a bug: Doug O’Neill’s 1–7 day stat is strong, and Antonio Fresu is an efficient finisher who fits this setup. If he gets a pocket behind 7 and 2, 1 DAKOTA COUNTRY should tip out and finish best.

ONE TO KEEP AN EYE ON: 7 HAWKER is the most dangerous speed here. He owns the top TimeformUS early figure (117) and, drawn outside, has the advantage to observe 2 INVINCIBLE and 5 RHINO from the outside, drop over, and ration his speed. That said, with the rail at 30 feet, the turns are tighter, which will make things very tough for 7 HAWKER into that first turn. But leaders who control the middle fractions become hard to reel in, and 7 HAWKER is built for that trip. His last five Beyers are light on average, but his best recent number puts him within range of the 81 par if he dictates. If 2 doesn’t force and 4 MCCLUSKY sits off, 7 HAWKER can stack the field, kick at the quarter pole, and prove stubborn on firm Santa Anita turf.

Race 2

Santa Anita, race 2, 6 furlongs, dirt (fast), $12,500 claiming 3 yo and up.

PP HORSE; AGE-SEX; JOCKEY; TRAINER; M/L ODDS; LAST 5 BEYER AVG; EARLY PACE—LATE PACE; % CHANCE TO WIN.

4 THE BIG CHEESEOLA; 5-G; K Kimura up; S Knapp trainer; 3-1 M/L; 66.0; 107—44; 33%.
3 GYPSY TEARS; 6-H; T C Baze up; V Brinkerhoff trainer; 2-1 M/L; 70.4; 81—70; 27%.
1 CONSTANT CONFLICT; 7-G; E Maldonado up; A Harris trainer; 5-2 M/L; 65.0; 105—54; 18%.
6 BRUTTO; 7-G; G Franco up; D Azcarate trainer; 5-1 M/L; 64.6; 93—62; 12%.
2 MAJOR TOM; 5-G; C Herrera up; G Lopez trainer; 6-1 M/L; 57.6; 58—74; 6%.
5 MY DOMINATOR; 7-G; K Frey up; I Tamayo trainer; 10-1 M/L; 65.4; 72—76; 4%.

DAILY RACING FORM BLURB: Front-runner/pace-presser 4 THE BIG CHEESEOLA gets a beneficial pace scenario in this $12.5k claiming sprint, as he tries to reproduce his $8k claiming win less than three weeks ago. In that race, ‘CHEESEOLA virtually wired the field. He could be the speed of this field; the sharp gelding can fire right back. 1 CONSTANT CONFLICT will keep the top choice honest. First start in two months, breaking from the inside post, ‘CONFLICT must use his speed. The trainer-jockey tandem of Andrew Harris and Edwin Maldonado has won at a 31 percent clip (10-for-32) since spring 2022. 5 MY DOMINATOR is a 12-time winner whose closing style is opposite the top choices. If the favorites hook up in a duel, the race could set up for the off-the-pace rally of MY DOMINATOR.

PACE AND SHAPE OF THE RACE: 4 THE BIG CHEESEOLA and 1 CONSTANT CONFLICT are the key speeds and most likely to hook up early, with 6 BRUTTO pressing just off them. That trio should guarantee an honest pace, putting 3 GYPSY TEARS in a perfect tracking, first-over spot to pounce turning for home. 2 MAJOR TOM and 5 MY DOMINATOR are deeper closers who’ll want the front end to overcook it; in a six-horse field, they’ll get cleaner lanes but still need some give up front to win. Baseline read: speed holds if 4 and 1 cooperate; if they duel, 3 gets first run and 2/5 can clunk up late.

MOST LIKELY WINNER: 4 THE BIG CHEESEOLA owns the top TimeformUS early pace (107), faster than 1 CONSTANT CONFLICT (105) and 6 BRUTTO (93), giving him the best chance to clear and control. He just wired a same-trip 6f at Santa Anita, turning back 2 MAJOR TOM, with a 73 Beyer—sharp speed that should translate at today’s level. He’s proven here (2-2-3 from 9 SA starts) and reliable at/around 6f (2-4-2), a profile suited to a fast, honest track. A recent 5f move in 1:00 ranked 1/24 and a solid 3f move just a few days back signals both maintained fitness and intent. Trainer Steve Knapp is solid in claimers and brings him back right; Kazushi Kimura fits a put-him-on-the-engine ride.

ONE TO KEEP AN EYE ON: 3 GYPSY TEARS projects the right stalk-and-pounce trip if 4 THE BIG CHEESEOLA and 1 CONSTANT CONFLICT trade punches early. His TimeformUS 81—70 profile screams sit-third/fourth and finish, not need-the-lead. He’s been running Beyers of 76-69-76, including a Del Mar win at 5.5f and a 76 at this 6f $12.5k level—exactly the kind of steady form that wins when the speed softens. He’s reliable on fast dirt (3-for-12, top 84), 1-for-3 at the distance, and 0-0-2 from three at Santa Anita—enough local/ distance proof to matter. With 4 THE BIG CHEESEOLA (107—44) and 1 CONSTANT CONFLICT (105—54) likely to ensure pace, 3 GYPSY TEARS should get first run off them. Rider Tyler Baze also knows him well, won on him back in July, and fits the tracking plan.

Race 3

Santa Anita, race 3, 6.5 furlongs, turf (firm), maiden special weight 2 yo fillies.

PP HORSE; AGE-SEX; JOCKEY; TRAINER; M/L ODDS; LAST 5 BEYER AVG; EARLY PACE—LATE PACE; % CHANCE TO WIN.

4 SURFIN’ U. S. A.; 2-F; J Hernandez up; L Powell trainer; 5-2 M/L; 49.0; 50—80; 27%.
1 PEANUTBUTTERBOMBE; 2-F; U Rispoli up; P D’Amato trainer; 2-1 M/L; N/A; N/A; 23%.
2 HAWAIIAN MOON; 2-F; K Kimura up; M McCarthy trainer; 3-1 M/L; N/A; N/A; 17%.
7 DARLIN’ DUCHESS; 2-F; T Baze up; V Brinkerhoff trainer; 15-1 M/L; 44.7; 64—50; 14%.
5 PHOTOGENIC; 2-F; A Ayuso up; L Powell trainer; 8-1 M/L; N/A; N/A; 9%.
3 EGYPTIAN MISTRESS; 2-F; E Maldonado up; N Drysdale trainer; 6-1 M/L; N/A; N/A; 6%.
6 SOUL SISTER; 2-F; K Frey up; K Headley trainer; 12-1 M/L; N/A; N/A; 4%.

DAILY RACING FORM BLURB: A promising debut by 4 SURFIN’ U. S. A. sets up the 2yo filly for a second-start maiden win. Her debut was terrific. She broke slowly, raced greenly at the back, then finished with run to miss by only two lengths. She posted two easy works since; trainer Leonard Powell is 4-for-12 this year with second-start maidens. First-time starter 3 EGYPTIAN MISTRESS appears to have trained well. Although maidens from this stable typically race into condition rather than fire first out, the works by ‘MISTRESS suggest she could be the exception. Juvenile progeny by Cairo Prince win at an average rate of 11 percent first out; trainer Neil Drysdale also trained the dam of ‘MISTRESS. She finished third in her debut and won second out, though none of her four runners won their debuts. 2 HAWAIIAN MOON has shown ability in morning works; her sire Omaha Beach gets 16 percent winners with debut 2-year-olds. Meanwhile, 1 PEANUTBUTTERBOMBE has shown speed in morning works, but her stamina is uncertain according to socalworkoutreport.com.

PACE AND SHAPE OF THE RACE: 7 DARLIN’ DUCHESS owns the top published TimeformUS early pace (64) and is the most likely leader from the outside; with the rail at 30 feet and a short run to the bend, settling the front early is valuable. 4 SURFIN’ U.S.A. shows the best late figure (80) and can sit behind the speed and finish. The debut group—1 PEANUTBUTTERBOMBE, 2 HAWAIIAN MOON, 3 EGYPTIAN MISTRESS, 5 PHOTOGENIC, and 6 SOUL SISTER—are pace unknowns; any one of them flashing gate speed could force 7 DARLIN’ DUCHESS to work, creating a fair setup for a stalker. Baseline read: 7 DARLIN’ DUCHESS tries to clear, 4 SURFIN’ U.S.A. tracks and pounces, with 1 PEANUTBUTTERBOMBE and 2 HAWAIIAN MOON as primary wildcards. Trip economy matters; saving ground into the turn is at a premium while late kick is decisive if an extra matchup develops up front.

MOST LIKELY WINNER: 4 SURFIN’ U.S.A. owns the best published late punch in the field (80 TimeformUS late) and a usable foundation Beyer (49) that most of these unraced or lightly raced rivals haven’t matched on paper. With 7 DARLIN’ DUCHESS expected to show the speed, 4 SURFIN’ U.S.A. draws a perfect tracking spot to sit second flight, save ground into the turn with the rail at 30 feet, and unleash that finish when it matters. J Hernandez fits the stalk-and-pounce brief, and L Powell has her placed where she belongs. Against debut wildcards like 1 PEANUTBUTTERBOMBE and 2 HAWAIIAN MOON, proven turf finishing power is the tie-breaker. If the front softens at all, 4 SURFIN’ U.S.A. is the filly most likely to roll past late.

ONE TO KEEP AN EYE ON: Experience matters in these baby races, and the 4 and the 7 are the only horses who have any of it here. Thus, 7 DARLIN’ DUCHESS is the most credible alternative if 4 SURFIN’ U.S.A. doesn’t fire. She owns the field’s top published TimeformUS early pace (64) and, from the outside, can clear and control without sandwiched pressure. With the rail at 30 feet and a short run to the bend, a loose leader can be hard to reel in, and her 44.7 last-5 Beyer average gives a usable base against debut unknowns. If the firsters don’t show real gas early, 7 DARLIN’ DUCHESS can ration it and kick for home; if 4 SURFIN’ U.S.A. gets bottled up or mistimes the move, the wire may come just in time for the speed.

Race 4

Santa Anita, race 4, 5.5 furlongs, dirt (fast), California-bred/sired 2 yo maiden claiming $20,000.

PP HORSE; AGE-SEX; JOCKEY; TRAINER; M/L ODDS; LAST 5 BEYER AVG; EARLY PACE—LATE PACE; % CHANCE TO WIN.

11 LADY K WESTFALL; 2-F; A Escobedo up; L Mendez trainer; 3-1 M/L; 29.3; 104—18; 24%.
2 WAVE WITH ENVY; 2-G; A Ayuso up; J Periban trainer; 9-2 M/L; 39.7; 100—17; 20%.
3 CHASE N RYAN; 2-G; K Kimura up; S Knapp trainer; 7-2 M/L; 26.4; 74—21; 13%.
13 FLASHY FRITZ; 2-C; E Maldonado up; S Miyadi trainer; 4-1 M/L; 39.6; 82—50; 11%.
4 MATTS ADVISOR; 2-G; D Cohen up; T McCanna trainer; 5-1 M/L; 37.3; 88—28; 9%.
9 MR. CARDENAS; 2-G; T Pereira up; J Periban trainer; 20-1 M/L; 28.6; 63—28; 6%.
7 GOLDEN CHASER; 2-G; J Laprida up; G Papaprodromou trainer; 12-1 M/L; N/A; N/A; 5%.
6 FIGHTING THUNDER; 2-G; K Frey up; C Lewis trainer; 8-1 M/L; N/A; N/A; 4%.
10 LA MOTTA AVENUE; 2-C; G Franco up; A Garcia trainer; 15-1 M/L; N/A; N/A; 3%.
12 CIELITOS WISH; 2-G; A Bautista up; L Mendez trainer; 15-1 M/L; 22.0; 78—24; 2%.
1 ONE HAPPY DUDE; 2-C; D Herrera up; S Knapp trainer; 30-1 M/L; 28.3; 54—39; 1%.
8 MORE THAN ORDINARY; 2-G; K Orozco up; J Thomas trainer; 50-1 M/L; 7.5; 58—15; 1%.
5 HOOD RIVER; 2-G; S Carmona up; F Rondan trainer; 30-1 M/L; N/A; N/A; 1%.

DAILY RACING FORM BLURB: A filly facing colts and geldings, 11 LADY K WESTFALL drops from Cal-bred MSW to Cal-bred maiden-20 and is drawn in post 11, far outside pace rival 2 WAVE WITH ENVY. ‘WESTFALL set or pressed fast fractions against better company her first three starts; now she returns to dirt and is entered for a claim tag. With a front-running or pace-pressing trip, she can beat the boys. But she will have to put away the aforementioned pace rival WAVE WITH ENVY. The latter finished in the money his first three starts, took a two-month break, and runs back at the same level. He will be dueling up front. 9 MR. CARDENAS looms the upsetter, dropping into a maiden-claiming sprint for Cal-breds. His only previous start at this level was an uneasy trip Aug. 1 when he broke from the rail. Outside post here, and rider switch to Tiago Pereira, ‘CARDENAS will be running from behind, possibly at a price. Also-eligible 13 FLASHY FRITZ shortens to a sprint after finishing second in a route. Meanwhile, 3 CHASE N RYAN earned the highest last-start figure (52 Beyer) in this field, and 4 MATTS ADVISOR finished in the money all three starts at Emerald Downs.

PACE AND SHAPE OF THE RACE: Expect a sharp scramble early with 11 LADY K WESTFALL and 2 WAVE WITH ENVY showing the strongest TimeformUS early pace, with 4 MATTS ADVISOR applying pressure just behind. 13 FLASHY FRITZ should get the cushy tracking spot two to three lengths back, while 3 CHASE N RYAN and 12 CIELITOS WISH sit midpack. Inside runners like 1 ONE HAPPY DUDE and 9 MR. CARDENAS risk traffic if they don’t break cleanly. If 11 LADY K WESTFALL and 2 WAVE WITH ENVY hook up through a hot half, the race tilts to 13 FLASHY FRITZ late; if not, a frontrunner may wire. First-timers 7 GOLDEN CHASER, 6 FIGHTING THUNDER, and 10 LA MOTTA AVENUE are pace wildcards.

MOST LIKELY WINNER: 11 LADY K WESTFALL, a filly racing against the boys, owns the race’s best weapon: a 104 TimeformUS early pace that edges 2 WAVE WITH ENVY’s 100 and outguns the rest. From the outside, her jockey Escobedo can break, clear, and either take the rail or sit just off 4 MATTS ADVISOR, avoiding the inside scrum. Her recent Beyers fit this $20k state-bred maiden claimer, and her last race’s call positions mark her as the one they all must catch. At 5.5 furlongs on a fast track, the shortened stretch magnifies early speed—her exact profile. If she shakes loose through the turn, 13 FLASHY FRITZ’s late kick won’t matter; if she’s pressured, she’s still the quickest to the eighth pole and can simply last.

ONE TO KEEP AN EYE ON: 13 FLASHY FRITZ, if he draws in, is the right alternative if 11 LADY K WESTFALL gets cooked by 2 WAVE WITH ENVY and 4 MATTS ADVISOR. His 82—50 TimeformUS split pairs usable tactical speed with the most credible late push in this field, and his last-5 Beyer average (39.6) is right with the proven top. The outside gate lets him sit clear of kickback, stalk two to three lengths behind the duel, and tip out with a clean lane. If the half goes sharp, 13 FLASHY FRITZ is positioned to pounce at the quarter pole and finish best.

Race 5

Santa Anita, race 5, 8 furlongs, turf (firm), maiden special weight 3-5 F&M

PP HORSE; AGE-SEX; JOCKEY; TRAINER; M/L ODDS; LAST 5 BEYER AVG; EARLY PACE—LATE PACE; % CHANCE TO WIN.

5 SURF SONG; 3-F; A Ayuso up; L Powell trainer; 9-2 M/L; 56.8; 81—67; 24%.
4 PHILIPPA; 4-F; J Hernandez up; B Baffert trainer; 9-5 M/L; 72.0; 97—77; 21%.
9 NAFISA; 4-F; H Berrios up; B Baffert trainer; 7-2 M/L; 68.8; 102—70; 17%.
7 STARWOOD; 3-F; M Demuro up; R Mandella trainer; 6-1 M/L; 64.0; 73—74; 13%.
1 BLAME EVE; 3-F; D Herrera up; L Powell trainer; 15-1 M/L; 56.5; 54—100; 9%.
3 PURA VIDA PRINCESA; 3-F; A Fresu up; D O’Neill trainer; 5-1 M/L; 62.2; 108—53; 7%.
2 NAPLES GAL; 3-F; M Smith up; R Mandella trainer; 10-1 M/L; 60.3; 111—35; 6%.
6 GATHERED; 3-F; R Gonzalez up; M McCarthy trainer; 30-1 M/L; 55.8; 98—67; 2%.
8 MUSIC LADY; 3-F; R Jaime up; R Gomez trainer; 50-1 M/L; 35.0; 67—45; 1%.

DAILY RACING FORM BLURB: 4 PHILIPPA is the best horse in this turf mile for maiden fillies and mares, but she is hardly a sure thing. She has never raced on grass, has just one sprint comeback prep under her belt, and was stabled with Bob Baffert’s second string at Los Alamitos until early this month. On the other hand, she is the fastest in the field on figures, and many of the maiden rivals she faced later became stakes fillies (Cavalieri, One Magic Philly, Seismic Beauty, Hope Road). PHILIPPA worked well at Los Al and then smoked a half-mile in 47 seconds at Santa Anita. Seems like she is ready to fire. Her main rival is unlucky stablemate 9 NAFISA, a career maiden who had a bad trip last out. She was blocked through the lane and never had a shot. She finished in the money 8 of 11 starts; perhaps new rider Hector Berrios will have better luck with the filly. However, she got no luck at the draw: post 9 of 9. 5 SURF SONG, runner-up her last two starts (turf sprint, turf route) wheels back 11 days after her sprint runner-up. She will be running on.

PACE AND SHAPE OF THE RACE: 2 NAPLES GAL projects as the clearest speed (top early figure), with 3 PURA VIDA PRINCESA and 4 PHILIPPA applying immediate pressure. 9 NAFISA should be forward but may have to work from the outside into the first turn, while 6 GATHERED sits just off them. Expect an honest-to-fast tempo rather than a crawl. That flow tilts the late phase toward 5 SURF SONG and 1 BLAME EVE (best late figures), with 7 STARWOOD the “first-run” stalker who could pounce if the speeds overdo it. 8 MUSIC LADY looks midpack to rear without a defined edge. With the rail at 30 feet, saving ground and tactical position matter; inside speed like 2 NAPLES GAL and pocketed trips for 4 PHILIPPA are advantaged, and wide sweeping moves from 9 NAFISA risk ground loss. Closers must secure lanes early in the stretch to capitalize.

MOST LIKELY WINNER: 5 SURF SONG gets the best of today’s projected flow. With 2 NAPLES GAL, 3 PURA VIDA PRINCESA, 4 PHILIPPA, and 9 NAFISA pushing an honest first half, 5 SURF SONG can sit fourth or fifth from post 5, save ground with the rail at 30 feet, and tip out for first run. Her turf-mile profile shows enough tactical speed to stay clear of traffic plus a reliable late punch. She’s not pace-dependent like deep closers and won’t be forced into a wide, energy-wasting trip like 9 NAFISA is likely to face. If 7 STARWOOD gets the jump, she’s a danger, but 5 SURF SONG owns the cleanest, most repeatable trip in this configuration.

ONE TO KEEP AN EYE ON: 7 STARWOOD is the filly who wins if 5 SURF SONG gets bottled or mistimes the move. From a mid-outside draw, 7 STARWOOD can dodge the first-turn scrum as 2 NAPLES GAL, 3 PURA VIDA PRINCESA, and 4 PHILIPPA sort themselves, then sit a clean tracking trip. Her balanced early—late profile suits a race that’s honest but not melting, giving her “first run” into the lane before deeper closers fully unwind. With the rail at 30 feet limiting inside options, an unobstructed outside lane can be an edge if 9 NAFISA is hung wide and 5 SURF SONG never finds daylight. If the pace is just hot enough to soften the leaders without collapsing, 7 STARWOOD’s tactical gear becomes the winning difference. She’s both second time out and second time long, and she’s also been getting a steady diet of 6f works in the mornings to build stamina. She’s dangerous here. The Baffert runners 4 PHILIPPA and 9 NAFISA are certainly live, too, but this may be a race to go away from the Baffert runners (and thus, most likely away from the majority of the money). If you must pick a Baffert, the 4 PHILIPPA is much more likely to win than the 9 NAFISA, in my opinion.

Race 6

Santa Anita, race 6, 8 furlongs, dirt (fast), $12,500 maiden claiming state-bred 3–5 yo.

PP HORSE; AGE-SEX; JOCKEY; TRAINER; M/L ODDS; LAST 5 BEYER AVG; EARLY PACE—LATE PACE; % CHANCE TO WIN.

9 PIO NONO; 3-G; J Hernandez up; V Cerin trainer; 7-2 M/L; 47.8; 57—67; 24%.
4 ROCKSALOT; 4-G; T Baze up; J Mullins trainer; 6-1 M/L; 44.8; 103—28; 18%.
6 R AWESOME KID; 4-G; H Berrios up; J Mullins trainer; 5-1 M/L; 44.8; 91—49; 16%.
8 FOREROYAL; 3-C; K Kimura up; B Galvin trainer; 9-2 M/L; 42.5; 89—81; 14%.
2 WAR SWIFT; 4-G; E RojasFernandez up; A Aquino trainer; 4-1 M/L; 53.0; 74—76; 12%.
10 MAXVILLE; 5-G; A Escobedo up; A Garcia trainer; 8-1 M/L; 49.2; 68—66; 6%.
1 PROBLEM SOLVER; 3-G; F Monroy up; C DeAlba trainer; 12-1 M/L; 41.2; 59—54; 5%.
5 TWILIGHT TIME; 3-G; D Herrera up; C Lewis trainer; 10-1 M/L; 43.0; 53—58; 3%.
7 MAGATON MAN; 4-G; K Frey up; J Bonde trainer; 30-1 M/L; 30.2; 69—48; 1%.
3 U R MY DESTINY; 3-F; W Orantes up; J Mendoza trainer; 30-1 M/L; 24.0; 44—46; 1%.

DAILY RACING FORM BLURB: 9 PIO NONO showed signs of life last out when he dropped to this $12.5k maiden-claiming route for Cal-breds. He finished a grinding third after an uncomfortable trip racing inside and behind horses. He gets a jockey switch to meet leader Juan Hernandez and can wear them down with a lumbering rally. 6 R AWESOME KID is racing into condition, making his third start back following an extended layoff. He ran an improved race last out, finishing third in a maiden-20 mile. Now he drops to Cal-bred maiden-12.5k and figures to be forwardly placed over a racing surface that is friendly to speed at one mile: 14 of the 18 dirt miles this meet were won by horses positioned first or second. It should also be noted that the track profile obviously compromises the late-running top choice. 4 ROCKSALOT is speed, adding blinkers, and trying to exploit the speed-conducive track profile. Nine of the 18 dirt miles were won by the pacesetter, which is where ROCKSALOT is likely to be positioned. 1 PROBLEM SOLVER finished second last out, nearly two lengths in front of top choice PIO NONO.

PACE AND SHAPE OF THE RACE: 4 ROCKSALOT and 6 R AWESOME KID have the sharpest gate speed and should hook up quickly into the short run to the first turn, with 8 FOREROYAL pressing outside if he breaks clean. 7 MAGATON MAN can show pace but likely stalks. 2 WAR SWIFT and 10 MAXVILLE get the ideal tracking spots behind the top trio. 9 PIO NONO sits in the second flight, poised to tip out by the three-eighths. 1 PROBLEM SOLVER and 5 TWILIGHT TIME figure to be well back early, with 3 U R MY DESTINY at the tail. Expect an honest-to-hot tempo; if 4 ROCKSALOT clears the rail he’s dangerous, but a three-way duel increases the chance that 9 PIO NONO or 2 WAR SWIFT grind past late, while deep closers need a full pace collapse.

MOST LIKELY WINNER: 9 PIO NONO projects the cleanest, most efficient trip. With 4 ROCKSALOT and 6 R AWESOME KID likely blasting early and 8 FOREROYAL pressing, the race should set up for a second-flight grinder drawn outside the fray. From the nine hole, 9 PIO NONO can sit clear of dirt, track that duel through the backstretch, and tip out on the far turn—exactly where his sustained run is most effective. He owns competitive recent Beyers, has already handled the mile on dirt, and retains a strong pace-aware pilot in J Hernandez. Compared with 2 WAR SWIFT and 10 MAXVILLE, who need perfect timing, 9 PIO NONO’s tactical versatility and draw reduce risk. If the speed softens even a little, he’s the one most likely to roll past late.

POSSIBLE OVERLAY: 4 ROCKSALOT looks like the overlay. At 6-1 M/L versus my 18% line, you would be getting paid for the risk. He owns the best early gas in the field (TimeformUS 103—28) and draws inside with the short run to the first turn; if 4 ROCKSALOT clears or dials back 6 R AWESOME KID early, he can control and take them a long way at a square price. His recent Beyers are competitive for this level, and his pace profile fits today’s trip. Backup note: 9 PIO NONO is a minor overlay at 7-2 versus my 24% line, but the real price mistake is 4 ROCKSALOT if the track plays fair-to-speed.

ONE TO KEEP AN EYE ON: 10 MAXVILLE has a live look if 9 PIO NONO’s trip goes sideways. The outside draw lets 10 MAXVILLE break, watch the inside speed tangle, and track without eating dirt. I know, he’s a career maiden who has had a ton of chances and hasn’t been particularly close in any of them, really. But his recent Beyers (last-5 average 49.2) are right for this $12,500 spot, and his 68—66 TimeformUS profile screams steady grinder, which would be ideal when 4 ROCKSALOT, 6 R AWESOME KID, and 8 FOREROYAL turn up the heat early. If that trio softens each other, 10 MAXVILLE gets the best shot at a run into the lane while the closers fan wide. At 8-1 M/L you’re paid for a clean, uncomplicated trip; a small step forward puts him in the photo, and any traffic or mistimed move from 9 PIO NONO only improves 10 MAXVILLE’s chances. This is a very tough race…

Race 7

Santa Anita, race 7, 10f, turf (firm), $50k allowance optional claimer 3 yo and up.

PP HORSE; AGE-SEX; JOCKEY; TRAINER; M/L ODDS; LAST 5 BEYER AVG; EARLY PACE—LATE PACE; % CHANCE TO WIN.

9 RASTAMAN VIBE; 4-R; J Hernandez up; S Knapp trainer; 3-2 M/L; 85.2; 66—91; 28%.
5 MYTHICAL REEL; 3-G; A Fresu up; P D’Amato trainer; 5-1 M/L; 75.0; 63—95; 18%.
8 OUBABE; 6-G; U Rispoli up; L Powell trainer; 6-1 M/L; 77.8; 87—85; 14%.
3 CRAZY CAVALIER; 4-G; A Ayuso up; D O’Neill trainer; 9-2 M/L; 76.2; 62—98; 11%.
6 GROGU; 4-G; D Herrera up; L Powell trainer; 12-1 M/L; 76.8; 70—90; 9%.
2 MONGOLIAN APPLE; 5-G; T Baze up; P Capestro trainer; 10-1 M/L; 73.4; 122—63; 7%.
1 RIMPROTECTOR; 6-G; K Frey up; T McCanna trainer; 8-1 M/L; 72.0; 61—99; 6%.
7 SPEARFISH; 4-G; M Demuro up; J Sierra trainer; 20-1 M/L; 71.2; 63—103; 4%.
4 OOBUBBAKAKAYO; 4-G; K Kimura up; J Uranga trainer; 15-1 M/L; 69.2; 67—105; 3%.

DAILY RACING FORM BLURB: 9 RASTAMAN VIBE is an obvious choice in this N1X/optional $50k claiming race at a mile and one-quarter on turf. He won his last two starts at this level racing a mile and three-eighths at DMR; he was in tough last time in a Grade 2, too, yet lost by only slightly more than six lengths. He returns to his winning level while entered for the optional claim tag, and he figures to be forwardly placed in a race likely to unfold at a tepid pace. 8 OUBABE was not the least bit disgraced in his recent comeback. He missed by slightly more than five lengths while making his first start in almost a year. OUBABE ran races last year against Cal-breds that would be competitive in this field. Second start back from a layoff, he should improve. 2 MONGOLIAN APPLE is probably in over his head, but the claiming-caliber gelding is the speed of the field. He will take them as far as he can. Wire to wire upset?

PACE AND SHAPE OF THE RACE: 2 MONGOLIAN APPLE projects as the clear speed, his TimeformUS early 122 likely opening a gap before the clubhouse turn. 8 OUBABE should press from close range, with 6 GROGU keeping him honest. A second flight sits in behind—4 OOBUBBAKAKAYO, 9 RASTAMAN VIBE, and 1 RIMPROTECTOR—saving ground and waiting. The back half features late-kick types: 3 CRAZY CAVALIER, 5 MYTHICAL REEL, and 7 SPEARFISH, all geared to finish. With 30 feet of rail up and a 10-furlong trip, the tempo figures to be tepid rather than punishing: if 2 MONGOLIAN APPLE gets breathers, he can carry far; if he overcooks it, the best late figures—4 OOBUBBAKAKAYO, 7 SPEARFISH, then 3 CRAZY CAVALIER/1 RIMPROTECTOR—come flying. Expect 8 OUBABE to get first run; deep closers need clean lanes turning for home.

MOST LIKELY WINNER: 9 RASTAMAN VIBE cuts back from a G2 at this exact 10f trip and brings proven stamina plus a reliable late engine (TimeformUS 66—91). He just won an optional claimer at Del Mar going 11f, then held his own versus tougher in the John Henry—exactly the kind of form that wins when you drop back into an allowance optional claimer on firm turf with the rail at 30 feet. His recent work pattern (5f in 1:01, and a sharp 3f blowout a few works back) screams maintained fitness, and Juan Hernandez fits his sit-and-pounce style. The Santa Anita ledger shows lots of thirds, but that’s class/context; today’s class relief and long run-in from the downhill should give him clean lanes to lengthen late. If 2 MONGOLIAN APPLE and 8 OUBABE ensure an honest tempo, 9 RASTAMAN VIBE gets the last punch.

ONE TO KEEP AN EYE ON: 6 GROGU owns a balanced profile for 10 furlongs, with TimeformUS 70—90 signaling tactical speed and a sustained finish—ideal if this stretches late. He exits an 84 at Del Mar where he improved through the lane against allowance foes, a legit step forward on figures. He’s already tasted this 1¼-mile trip at Santa Anita, making a mid-race move despite getting rank—experience that can translate if he settles better today. The projected shape helps: 2 MONGOLIAN APPLE brings a scorching early 122, with 8 OUBABE a pressing threat at 87—pressure that can soften the front and set up GROGU’s run. With Leonard Powell training and D A Herrera retaining the ride, a clean, covered trip and timely cue could see 6 GROGU grinding past tiring speeds late.

ANOTHER POSSIBLE UNDERDOG: 3 CRAZY CAVALIER brings one of the best finishing kicks in the field (TimeformUS 62—98) and has been competing at the same OC 50k level on firm turf, including long Del Mar routes that underline his stamina. Trained by D O’Neill and ridden by A Ayuso, he profiles as a covered-up midpack stalker who can save ground from the inside and launch late on the downhill stretch. If 2 MONGOLIAN APPLE and 8 OUBABE keep the pace honest, 3 CRAZY CAVALIER’s late figure makes him a prime beneficiary, especially with a clean lane turning for home. His recent races at this class and surface, plus steady conditioning, make him a viable upsetter if 9 RASTAMAN VIBE’s trip goes sideways.

Race 8

Santa Anita, race 8, 6, dirt (fast), $20k allowance optional claimer (Cal-bred/Cal-sired) 3 yo and up.

PP HORSE; AGE-SEX; JOCKEY; TRAINER; M/L ODDS; LAST 5 BEYER AVG; EARLY PACE—LATE PACE; % CHANCE TO WIN.

11 UNCLE CHILLY; 4-C; K Kimura up; M Puype trainer; 8-1 M/L; 68.8; 70—80; 22%.
9 CATMANSUE; 4-C; A Fresu up; D O’Neill trainer; 6-1 M/L; 75.2; 90—68; 18%.
14 STRONGERTHANBEFORE; 5-G; A Ayuso up; D Blacker trainer; 4-1 M/L; 80.0; 118—49; 15%.
3 COACH CRONIN; 5-G; J J Hernandez up; M Glatt trainer; 6-1 M/L; 62.2; 83—69; 12%.
1 POKERKNIGHTATVEES; 3-C; E Maldonado up; D O’Neill trainer; 15-1 M/L; 73.4; 95—75; 9%.
2 BERLIN WALL; 3-C; T J Pereira up; S Knapp trainer; 9-2 M/L; 73.3; 96—69; 7%.
10 PIPER’S CAUSEWAY; 5-G; H I Berrios up; J J Uranga trainer; 8-1 M/L; 74.0; 100—58; 5%.
12 BINGING; 3-C; R Gonzalez up; A C Garcia trainer; 20-1 M/L; 70.6; 96—59; 4%.
6 FRANK BULLITT; 3-G; T C Baze up; Debbie Winick trainer; 12-1 M/L; 66.0; 108—55; 3%.
4 GALLAND DE BESOS; 6-G; F Monroy up; Jesus Ramos trainer; 20-1 M/L; 72.0; 79—81; 2%.
7 GEEZER; 5-G; M Demuro up; Hector O Palma trainer; 15-1 M/L; 70.6; 90—66; 1%.
5 CODY BOY; 4-G; W R Orantes up; Javier J Sierra trainer; 30-1 M/L; 69.2; 84—77; 1%.
8 ALPINE THUNDER; 7-G; K Frey up; J Hernandez Jr trainer; 30-1 M/L; 61.4; 85—71; 1%.

DAILY RACING FORM BLURB: Close call between three principals in this Cal-bred allowance sprint: 9 CATMANSUE, 2 BERLIN WALL, and 14 STRONGERTHANBEFORE. The call is CATMANSUE, third last out in a similar Cal-bred allowance at DMR that was his third start of the summer meet and second start in two weeks. He actually ran okay to finish third, though he regressed from his sharp previous win. CATMANSUE has now had a month and a half between starts, and his pressing style suits the pace scenario. BERLIN WALL ran super in his comeback against open N1X rivals. He pressed the pace, battled back, and finished second behind six-time winner Ghost of Midnight. Excellent comeback by ‘WALL, who was racing for the first time in nearly eight months. Now he drops from open N1X to Cal-bred N1X and should be fitter with a race under his belt. STRONGERTHANBEFORE scored a solid debut victory early last month. He worked well since and is quick enough to set or press the pace. The top 3 are evenly matched.

PACE AND SHAPE OF THE RACE: Expect a sharp scramble early. 14 STRONGERTHANBEFORE is the quickest and will try to blast over from the parking lot, with 6 FRANK BULLITT and 10 PIPER’S CAUSEWAY sending to keep him honest. Inside, 1 POKERKNIGHTATVEES must use his rail to avoid getting shuffled; 2 BERLIN WALL and 12 BINGING sit just off. That pressure should make the half-mile hot and string the field out. Perfect for mid-pack stalkers like 9 CATMANSUE and 3 COACH CRONIN to track and pounce turning for home. The best setup, though, lands with 11 UNCLE CHILLY—projected to sit 6–8 lengths back, save ground, and finish into a tiring pace. 4 GALLAND DE BESOS and 5 CODY BOY can clunk up if it melts; 7 GEEZER and 8 ALPINE THUNDER need everything to break right. Trip-wise, wide speeds (14) risk ground loss; the rail (1) is boom-or-bust.

MOST LIKELY WINNER: 11 UNCLE CHILLY. With 14 STRONGERTHANBEFORE, 6 FRANK BULLITT, 10 PIPER’S CAUSEWAY, 1 POKERKNIGHTATVEES and 2 BERLIN WALL all looking to vie early, the half should be sharp, tilting the flow to a midpack closer. 11 UNCLE CHILLY owns a solid TimeformUS late figure and a reliable off-the-pace profile, meaning he doesn’t need everything to collapse—just an honest scrum up front. The outside draw lets him sit clear of the pocket chaos, track the speed line, and time a sweeping move into the lane. His recent Beyers are competitive relative to today’s par and stack up well against the other closers, while the speed types risk ground loss or hook each other. If 9 CATMANSUE or 3 COACH CRONIN fire, they still need the same trip; 11 UNCLE CHILLY projects the cleaner one and the stronger finish.

ONE TO KEEP AN EYE ON: 1 POKERKNIGHTATVEES. From the rail, with 95 early TimeformUS pace and Edwin Maldonado’s send style, he can seize the fence or sit in the pocket behind 14 STRONGERTHANBEFORE and 10 PIPER’S CAUSEWAY if/when they go. If 14 stumbles or can’t clear, 1 POKERKNIGHTATVEES gets the inside advantage and a ground-saving trip. His last-five Beyer average 73.4 sits within striking distance of the 84 par, and he is significantly better on dirt than he’s been on turf; thus, a small step forward puts him right there. For 11 UNCLE CHILLY to be compromised, he needs traffic or a moderate first-half; that exact scenario helps 1 POKERKNIGHTATVEES control things and get first run on 9 CATMANSUE and 3 COACH CRONIN. At 15-1, the price compensates for speed pressure risk; break, rail, and pace complexion give him a very live, no-nonsense path.

Race 9

Santa Anita, race 9, 6 furlongs, turf (firm; rail at 30 feet), $25k N3L claiming 3 yo and up.

PP HORSE; AGE-SEX; JOCKEY; TRAINER; M/L ODDS; LAST 5 BEYER AVG; EARLY PACE—LATE PACE; % CHANCE TO WIN.

2 OUR BUCKY CHARM; 6-G; K Kimura up; M Puype trainer; 2-1 M/L; 81.0; 106—73; 28%.
4 PLAYER B; 5-R; E Maldonado up; F Rodriguez trainer; 7-2 M/L; 78.8; 109—66; 24%.
8 BELLY UP; 5-G; A Ayuso up; B Koriner trainer; 4-1 M/L; 74.2; 102—58; 18%.
7 THE OLD NINE; 4-C; G Franco up; J Periban trainer; 20-1 M/L; 71.6; 82—70; 10%.
3 MINISTER SHANE; 7-G; A Fresu up; C Gaines trainer; 3-1 M/L; 75.6; 91—69; 8%.
5 BROADWAY UNIONS; 5-G; M Demuro up; H Palma trainer; 12-1 M/L; 67.4; 77—71; 5%.
1 BARSABAS; 6-G; K Frey up; A Farias trainer; 30-1 M/L; 65.8; 74—84; 4%.
6 CUPID’S CRUSADER; 6-G; H Berrios up; A Marquez trainer; 8-1 M/L; 67.4; 78—73; 3%.

DAILY RACING FORM BLURB: 2 OUR BUCKY CHARM drops in class to $25k claiming N3L and returns to his favorite turf course. ‘CHARM has raced 3 times on SA turf: 1 win, 2 seconds. He finished nowhere last out at DMR, but his comeback two starts ago was decent. He has speed for a front-running/pace-pressing trip, although that running style has not worked well recently in turf sprints with the rails at 30 feet: the last four races at the distance/surface/rail setting were won from the back of the field. Top choice, nonetheless. 8 BELLY UP also has speed, he also is versatile. Drawn outside, dropping in class, returning to the turf course on which he scored his most recent win, BELLY UP is likely to be pressing the pace. 4 PLAYER B has changed stables since last raced; he drops in class and makes his first start in seven months over a SA turf course on which he has 2 wins and 6 seconds. 7 THE OLD NINE is back where he fits and will be rolling late.

PACE AND SHAPE OF THE RACE: 4 PLAYER B, 2 OUR BUCKY CHARM, and 8 BELLY UP project to blaze—Player B owns the top early (109), with Our Bucky Charm (106, blinkers) and Belly Up (102) in tow. 3 MINISTER SHANE and 7 THE OLD NINE stalk; 5 BROADWAY UNIONS and 6 CUPID’S CRUSADER sit midpack. 1 BARSABAS drops out and makes one run, holding the best late (84). Fast fractions are likely; if 4 and 2 duel, a second-flight trip wins, with 3 best placed; if the speed sneaks clear, 4 is most dangerous.

MOST LIKELY WINNER: 2 OUR BUCKY CHARM owns the field’s best early gas (TimeformUS 106) from an inside draw that lets him control or sit pocket. He’s twice been nailed late at this exact trip and course with strong Beyers—90 and 89—while dueling on the front, figures that sit comfortably above today’s 81 par. Blinkers go on today, and his trainer’s turf-sprint numbers are solid with respectable “blink on” stats, signaling intent. The worktab is sharp enough to maintain speed—SA 4f in :47 (2/18) and a :35 3f tune at Del Mar—so fitness isn’t in doubt. With tactical pace superiority, recent above-par figures at today’s configuration, and a steady hand in K Kimura, 2 OUR BUCKY CHARM is simply the most likely to get the trip and finish the job.

ONE TO KEEP AN EYE ON: 8 BELLY UP brings legit upside if 2 OUR BUCKY CHARM doesn’t get the trip. His TimeformUS early 102 puts him right behind the fastest, and the outside draw lets him press 2 OUR BUCKY CHARM and 4 PLAYER B without eating kickback or traffic. If those two hook up and the pace turns hot, 8 BELLY UP gets first run turning for home—his typical trip when he’s at his best—and his recent Beyers sit within striking distance of the 81 par. Should 2 fail to clear or get pinned inside, 8 BELLY UP can either clear off or sit the winning pocket outside, then try to open a gap on closers like 3 MINISTER SHANE and 7 THE OLD NINE. In short: clean trip, tactical speed, and the right flow make him dangerous.