Santa Anita Racetrack — Sunday, October 19, 2025 — Horse Racing Picks

RACE 1

Santa Anita, race 1, 6.5 furlongs, turf (firm), $25,000 claiming N2L 3 yo and up.

PP HORSE; AGE-SEX; JOCKEY; TRAINER; M/L ODDS; LAST 5 BEYER AVG; EARLY PACE—LATE PACE; % CHANCE TO WIN.

2 Press Your Luck; 3-F; M Demuro up; D O’Neill trainer; 5-1 M/L; 63.2; 65—78; 23%.
4 Freya; 3-F; R Gonzalez up; D Blacker trainer; 9-2 M/L; 61.8; 72—82; 17%.
3 Baela; 3-F; J Hernandez up; B Baffert trainer; 7-2 M/L; 66.7; 112—49; 16%.
10 Only Reputation; 4-F; K Kimura up; R Hanson trainer; 12-1 M/L; 63.7; 78—77; 12%.
9 True Patriot; 6-M; H Berrios up; R Hess trainer; 6-1 M/L; 67.0; 58—100; 10%.
7 Guiltyofhavingfun; 3-F; K Frey up; A Mathis trainer; 15-1 M/L; 63.0; 105—54; 7%.
13 Sei Bella; 3-F; T Baze up; J Periban trainer; 10-1 M/L; 52.0; 93—46; 5%.
1 Lady Rider; 3-F; A Fresu up; V Cerin trainer; 8-1 M/L; 53.6; 88—76; 3%.
6 Ready to Dare; 3-F; D Herrera up; J Uranga trainer; 10-1 M/L; 54.0; 77—66; 3%.
12 Maniae; 4-F; D Cohen up; G Vallejo trainer; 8-1 M/L; 47.4; 87—54; 2%.
8 Looks Lucky; 4-F; A Lezcano up; M Glatt trainer; 20-1 M/L; 44.5; 74—54; 1%.
11 Misty Heart; 3-F; K Orozco up; V Belvoir trainer; 30-1 M/L; 45.0; 89—40; 1%.
5 Lady Lithesome; 4-F; S Carmona up; D Baker trainer; 30-1 M/L; 47.8; 63—85; 0%.

DAILY RACING FORM BLURB: 7 GUILTYOFHAVINGFUN returns to her preferred turf course and faces easier in this $25k claiming N2L turf sprint than she met recently in Cal-bred allowance races. She has speed for a pressing trip outside her main rival; she benefits by the cutback from a mile to six and one-half furlongs. To win, she must put away 3 BAELA, who is the fastest in the field based on speed figures. Lightly raced BAELA is dropping into a claiming race in just the fourth start of her career. She won a MSW first out, finished second in a N1X, then was outclassed and finished last in a Grade 3. Now she shows up for a tag. Quick enough to make the lead, she could be long gone on the drop. 1 LADY RIDER goes dirt route to turf sprint after a creditable runner-up finish vs. similar. Her sire Accelerate is below-average in terms of producing turf runners, but the dam of ‘RIDER was a turf mare who has produced turf winners. ‘RIDER is expected to rally from off the pace.

PACE/SHAPE OF THE RACE: This should be fast and contentious. Baela (112 early) and Guiltyofhavingfun (105) are the most authentic need-the-lead types and figure to hook up early, with Lady Rider (88) and Maniae (87) handy inside. If AE Sei Bella (93, blinkers on) draws in from the far outside, she only cranks the pace hotter; Misty Heart (89) can also add pressure. With three-plus bona fide speeds, the pace pressure index is high, so a collapse or at least a tiring final furlong is in play. That setup tilts the race to off-pace runners with finishing punch and clean trips: True Patriot owns the top late figure (100) and should be rolling if she isn’t buried in traffic; Freya (82 late) and Press Your Luck (78 late) profile as ideal stalk-and-pounce types, and Only Reputation (77 late) fits the same flow. Big field at 6.5f on firm turf means saving ground matters; mid-pack inside trips are golden, three-wide pressers are fine, five-wide chasers are dead. Bottom line: speed draws no freebies here—expect a sharp early duel, a stretched midrace, and a closer/stalker landing the last run.

MOST LIKELY WINNER: Press Your Luck fits today’s shape: she has enough tactical speed to sit behind the burners and the late kick to finish when they fold (TimeformUS 65—78). She’s taking a clear class drop after grinding against allowance/optional-claiming company (OC 20k/N1X and OC 50k; also a Clm 40k) and now lands in a $25k N2L where the Beyer par is 71—a number she has already met or topped (best 76). She’s been reliable at Santa Anita without winning (8 starts: 0-2-3) and similar on turf (11: 0-3-3), which is the knock, but this is the softest field she’s seen in months, and the inside draw helps her save ground for a stalk-and-pounce trip. The Demuro/O’Neill combo has been productive locally (25% with a positive ROI), and she sports a recent bullet to signal maintained fitness. Net: right running style for a likely hot pace, class relief, figures at or above par, live rider/trainer, and a ground-saving post make her the most logical winner despite the 0-for-turf caveat.

POSSIBLE OVERLAY: 9 True Patriot looks like the right kind of price play. She owns the field’s top TimeformUS late figure (100) and today’s race projects a hot, contested pace that should come apart late—exactly her wheelhouse. She’s been facing tougher N1X company and now lands in a softer $25k N2L; her spring 6.5-furlong turf try here produced a solid figure while passing horses through the lane, and her recent mile efforts show the same sustained late energy despite traffic. The post isn’t perfect in a big field, but Hector Berrios fits patient turf closers and can tuck in mid-pack, save some ground, and tip out when the duelers start to shorten stride. If she gets a cleaner run than she’s had lately, her finishing kick is good enough to mow them down at a fair price.

RACE 2

Santa Anita, race 2, 6 furlongs, dirt (fast), Anoakia Stakes 2 yo fillies $85,000 purse

PP HORSE; AGE-SEX; JOCKEY; TRAINER; M/L ODDS; LAST 5 BEYER AVG; EARLY PACE—LATE PACE; % CHANCE TO WIN.

4 Himika; 2-F; J J Hernandez up; B Baffert trainer; 4-5 M/L; 70.5; 97—66; 40%.
1 Revera; 2-F; A Fresu up; J Sadler trainer; 6-5 M/L; 75.0; 92—56; 32%.
2 Umbralle; 2-F; H Berrios up; J Sadler trainer; 5-1 M/L; 58.0; 104—38; 15%.
5 Stuffy Mist; 2-F; T C Baze up; V Garcia trainer; 15-1 M/L; 60.0; 102—41; 9%.
3 Heavenly Princess; 2-F; G Franco up; L Barocio trainer; 20-1 M/L; N/A; N/A; 4%.

DAILY RACING FORM BLURB: 4 HIMIKA shortens to her preferred sprint trip and drops in class after setting the pace and fading in a G2 route. The 2yo filly ran the fastest race of her career over the SA track in her debut in spring, she won a G3 at Del Mar, then was compromised by strategy and distance her next two starts. One-turn speed is her deal; she is drawn outside her main rival and can win at a short price. Favorites won six of the last 10 editions of this stakes race. Last-out maiden winner 1 REVERA is the main threat. Runner-up to subsequent graded winner Explora first out, REVERA crushed maidens next out by more than five lengths. Both races were at DMR, she has worked well since returning home to SA. A versatile filly who can rally from behind, REVERA meets a field with pace to flatter her closing kick. She is trained by John Sadler, who also entered last-out maiden turf winner 2 UMBRALLE. The latter is speed and will keep the pace honest.

PACE/SHAPE OF THE RACE: This shapes up fast but controlled. Umbralle (104 early) and Stuffy Mist (102 early) are the two true speeds and should hook up quickly, with Umbralle likely punching through from post 2 and Stuffy Mist applying pressure from the outside. Himika (97 early, 66 late) has enough gate zip to secure a tracking spot in third, ideally outside the duel, and she owns the best late punch among the proven runners. Revera (92 early, 56 late) projects to sit the pocket from the rail a length or two back, needing a clean break and room turning for home. Heavenly Princess debuts versus winners and figures to lag early while learning on the fly. With only five runners, the pace battle shouldn’t be suicidal; a moderate-to-hot tempo is more likely than a meltdown. That flow tilts the race to tactical stalkers getting first run—Himika most of all—while the inside speed (Umbralle) has the best chance to stick if the pressure backs off mid-race and Revera looks to grind up late.

MOST LIKELY WINNER: Himika is the most likely winner because she owns proven graded-stakes class and the best published figures in the field at today’s trip. She already wired the G3 Sorrento at six furlongs and broke her maiden at Santa Anita, showing tactical speed and the ability to finish, and her published Beyer ceiling (90) exceeds the life tops of Revera (76), Umbralle (61), and Stuffy Mist (66). Her TimeformUS profile (97 early, 66 late) is built for a pressing, first-run trip behind the two pure speeds, Umbralle (104 early) and Stuffy Mist (102 early), in a five-horse field that rewards tactical positioning. She cuts back from tougher G1/G2 company, reunites with Hernandez, and shows a series of sharp bullets (multiple 1/xx 5f works), all signaling intent from a top 2-year-old barn. Taken together—class edge, superior figure base, ideal pace setup, and live trainer/jockey combo—she simply has the fewest ways to lose.

POSSIBLE OVERLAY: Umbralle is the right kind of underdog. She owns the field’s top TimeformUS early pace figure (104) and draws inside in a five-horse sprint, giving her a real chance to control things if she breaks clean. She just won at six furlongs (Sept. 26) and handled dirt fine on debut at Del Mar, so the surface switch back isn’t a knock. The pedigree is pure speed and class (Into Mischief × Unique Bella), and the Sadler/Berrios combo is live this year. Her worktab is sharp and intentful (e.g., 5f in :59, plus a recent 3f in :36 and 4f in :48), suggesting she’ll show speed again. If Stuffy Mist doesn’t apply relentless pressure, Umbralle can clear or sit a soft pocket, and in a short field that’s often enough to beat a favorite.

RACE 3

Santa Anita, race 3, 8 furlongs, dirt (fast), $12,500 claiming 3 yo and up.

PP HORSE; AGE-SEX; JOCKEY; TRAINER; M/L ODDS; LAST 5 BEYER AVG; EARLY PACE—LATE PACE; % CHANCE TO WIN.

6 Feel the Magic; 4-G; K Kimura up; J R Valdez trainer; 7-5 M/L; 71.0; 95—75; 32%.
3 Doo Wop Don; 7-G; D A Herrera up; A Mathis trainer; 5-2 M/L; 75.6; 92—75; 27%.
5 Low Expectations; 5-G; K Frey up; A C Garcia trainer; 7-2 M/L; 71.6; 94—78; 18%.
1 Leyas Candy; 6-G; E Maldonado up; A Harris trainer; 9-2 M/L; 67.6; 97—61; 12%.
2 Sea Dog; 5-G; A Lezcano up; O J Jauregui trainer; 12-1 M/L; 67.0; 91—74; 7%.
4 Panuco; 3-G; S Carmona up; J Periban trainer; 10-1 M/L; 63.6; 93—57; 4%.

DAILY RACING FORM BLURB: 6 FEEL THE MAGIC wheels back seven days after he crushed a $10k claiming N3L dirt mile by more than six lengths. He was claimed off the win, runs back for $12.5k, and will be tough to beat if he runs two alike. 5LOW EXPECTATIONS drops in class after he finished sixth with a wide trip against tougher than these. His runner-up finish two starts back at Los Alamitos puts him in the hunt; he won a pair of SA dirt routes in winter 2023. 3 DOO WOP DON, third for $20k claiming while only a half-length behind LOW EXPECTATIONS, is making his third start back from a layoff. A 7yo veteran, DOO WOP DON is a 12-time winner who won a pair of routes but might be best at one turn. A two-turn mile is at the outer limit of his distance ability. 1 LEYAS CANDY looms the upsetter, first off the claim and stretching out with speed to make his presence felt early.

PACE/SHAPE OF THE RACE: This should be an honest-to-brisk mile. From the rail, Leyas Candy owns the top TimeformUS early pace (97) and almost certainly goes, with Feel the Magic (95) pressing from the clear outside. Low Expectations (94) and Panuco (93) add real pace pressure from the middle, so the first turn won’t be a free ride. That quartet makes a genuine first half likely, which tilts the flow toward the best tacticals sitting 1–3 lengths back. Doo Wop Don (92 early/75 late) profiles as the pocket-stalker who can tip out and grind, while Feel the Magic’s 75 late figure and proven rate-then-finish style make him the first run over a tiring leader. Low Expectations owns the best late figure (78) and can capitalize if they overcook it, but he may be 2–3 wide stalking. Sea Dog (91/74) gets a tracking trip and can clunk up if the top four soften each other. Net: pace honest, inside speed vulnerable late, race flows to tactical stalkers.

MOST LIKELY WINNER: Feel The Magic is best placed to win because he projects the cleanest, most efficient trip. His TimeformUS profile (Early 95, Late 75) is exactly what this mile wants: enough natural speed to sit outside the inside burners, and enough late energy to finish when they tire. The outside draw lets him press, avoid the first-turn squeeze, and make the first run turning for home instead of fighting on the rail. His PPs show he has faced better company (including OC50k/N1X lines), so today’s $12.5k claiming level is meaningful class relief rather than a reach. The worktab is steady and timely at Santa Anita, including a recent 5f in 1:02 and a 4f in 49, signaling maintained fitness into this spot. Pedigree fits—by Good Magic (Curlin)—so the fast dirt mile is squarely in his lane. Netting it out: a pace-advantaged outside presser with solid late strength, current works, and class edge is the most logical winner if he breaks clean and gets the expected stalking trip.

POSSIBLE OVERLAY: Sea Dog is the value alternative. He’s 12-1 on the morning line with a usable TimeformUS profile (Early 91, Late 74) that fits today’s projected honest tempo from posts 1, 4, 5, and 6. From post 2 he can save ground, sit a length or two off the inside speed, and get first run if the leaders soften each other. His mile form is legit at this level: a game second in a $12.5k N2X (75 Beyer) and a pacesetting win at a notch below; at Santa Anita he’s shown he can make the lead and still stick around late (72 Beyer in an SA mile). That says he handles the trip and today’s surface. With A. Lezcano up for O. J. Jauregui, the ask is simple: break clean, secure the pocket, and tip out at the three-sixteenths. If Feel The Magic and the other speeds trade punches early, Sea Dog has a clear, ground-saving path to an upset.

RACE 4

Santa Anita, race 4, 8 furlongs, dirt (fast), maiden special weight state-bred 3–5 yo

PP HORSE; AGE-SEX; JOCKEY; TRAINER; M/L ODDS; LAST 5 BEYER AVG; EARLY PACE—LATE PACE; % CHANCE TO WIN.

4 Otto’s Magic; 3-G; R Gonzalez up; P D’Amato trainer; 6-5 M/L; 77.0; 116—47; 36%.
5 Keithing Thunder; 3-C; T C Baze up; B Galvin trainer; 3-1 M/L; 65.2; 102—58; 24%.
1 Rich Reward; 3-G; K Frey up; P Capestro trainer; 7-2 M/L; 70.5; 115—45; 18%.
6 Non Domicile; 3-G; U Rispoli up; G Papaprodromou trainer; 4-1 M/L; 56.5; 93—60; 14%.
2 Tom Mix; 3-C; A Fresu up; P D’Amato trainer; 15-1 M/L; 28.0; 54—57; 5%.
3 Team Player; 3-G; K Kimura up; R Hanson trainer; 12-1 M/L; N/A; N/A; 3%.

DAILY RACING FORM BLURB: A solid runner-up debut stamps 4 OTTO’S MAGIC the horse to beat stretching from a sprint to mile in this state-bred maiden race. ‘MAGIC ran very well first out. He pressed outside the eventual winner, kept digging late, and finished clear of third. One mile is within range, and trainer Phil D’Amato is reliable in these situations. Since winter 2022, the trainer is 6-for-8 with sprint-to-route favorites in maiden dirt races. 1 RICH REWARD was the beaten favorite in the sprint the top choice exits; ‘REWARD lost ground racing wide and was no match late. But this two-turn race might be a different story. From the rail, ‘REWARD must use his speed; the pace of this route should be softer. 5 KEITHING THUNDER finished third in the same sprint the top pair exit. ‘THUNDER is proven running long, having missed by only a half-length two back in a Cal-bred maiden dirt mile at DMR.

PACE/SHAPE OF THE RACE: Expect a sharp scramble early: Otto’s Magic and Rich Reward have the top TimeformUS early pace figures (116 and 115) and should hook up quickly. Keithing Thunder (102 early) projects to sit just off them, tracking and poised to pounce if the top pair overdo it. Non Domicile lacks their gate pop (93 early) but owns the best late figure (60) and can draft in midpack hoping for a collapse. Tom Mix is slower early (54) with only fair late (57), so he’ll need a meltdown and a perfect trip. Team Player is an unknown debutant; baseline is an off-pace education unless he breaks sharply. If Otto’s Magic clears without heat, his speed can carry; if Rich Reward keeps him honest through fast fractions, Keithing Thunder’s pressing trip is the sweet spot. In a six-horse field, traffic should be limited; the flow likely sets up speed-press-stalk, with the result hinging on whether the 4 and 1 duel or one secures an uncontested lead.

MOST LIKELY WINNER: Otto’s Magic is fastest where it matters most today: he owns the top TimeformUS early pace figure in the field (116), and he just posted the best last-out Beyer (77) on this surface. In that 6.5f Del Mar MSW, he pressed and held second while finishing in front of both Keithing Thunder and Rich Reward—today’s main pace and form rivals—so his recent company line is the right one and it’s already proven against these. He’s eligible to move forward second career start for a 28% barn this meet, and his worktab is live with multiple 5f moves at or under 1:01, including 5f in :59, signaling fitness for today’s stretch to a mile. The shape is simple: he’s quickest early and drawn to secure position into a short field; if he clears or even controls from the two-path, his combination of superior gate speed and recent class/figure edge should make him very hard to reel in.

POSSIBLE OVERLAY: Non Domicile is the right kind of underdog if the 4 and 1 trade haymakers up front. He owns the field’s best TimeformUS late pace figure (60) with enough early life (93) to secure a clean, outside stalking trip from the 6, avoiding pocket traffic in this short field. His recent Santa Anita work shows fitness and intent (5f in 1:01 on Oct. 12, H 26/68), and his lines include a “duel inside, clear, caught” effort—proof he can travel, then finish when not used hard early. Today’s one-mile dirt MSW is the same class band he’s been holding, and he reunites with U. Rispoli, a fit for the sit-then-pounce plan the shape invites. If Otto’s Magic and Rich Reward keep the fractions honest, Non Domicile’s late punch gives him a legitimate winning path at a price.

RACE 5

Santa Anita, race 5, 8 furlongs, turf (firm), $25,000 claiming 3 yo and up.

PP HORSE; AGE-SEX; JOCKEY; TRAINER; M/L ODDS; LAST 5 BEYER AVG; EARLY PACE—LATE PACE; % CHANCE TO WIN.

5 Vantastic; 9-G; J Hernandez up; P Eurton trainer; 6-1 M/L; 83.0; 74—106; 20%.
11 Sbagliato; 5-G; U Rispoli up; P Miller trainer; 5-1 M/L; 79.8; 62—102; 16%.
6 Don’t Swear Dave; 6-G; A Fresu up; R Hess trainer; 6-1 M/L; 80.2; 86—87; 14%.
1 Megayacht; 7-G; D Cohen up; R Hess trainer; 12-1 M/L; 78.4; 53—98; 10%.
4 Castle Leoch; 6-G; A Lezcano up; M Glatt trainer; 12-1 M/L; 80.0; 83—94; 8%.
8 Jimmy Blue Jeans; 7-G; K Frey up; J Hernandez trainer; 20-1 M/L; 77.2; 103—73; 7%.
3 Nameless; 4-G; T Baze up; G Vallejo trainer; 9-2 M/L; 77.4; 86—80; 6%.
9 Fireman Dan; 6-G; K Orozco up; V Belvoir trainer; 15-1 M/L; 74.0; 83—89; 5%.
10 Its Kraken Time; 5-G; G Franco up; J Raudales trainer; 5-1 M/L; 78.0; 117—57; 5%.
7 Neon Lights; 5-G; E Maldonado up; J Mullins trainer; 8-1 M/L; 74.2; 113—62; 4%.
12 Great King; 7-G; K Kimura up; F Rodriguez trainer; 10-1 M/L; 76.6; 115—53; 3%.
2 J T’s Watch; 7-G; C Herrera up; G Vallejo trainer; 50-1 M/L; 55.0; 92—59; 2%.

DAILY RACING FORM BLURB: A deep field of $25k claiming veterans race a mile on turf; 6 DON’T SWEAR DAVE gets the call off his win and second in recent DMR starts at this level. ‘DAVE also likes SA turf, in the exacta 7 of 15. ‘DAVE was claimed off his last start and can pay quick dividends from off the pace. 5 VANTASTIC is a 9yo gelding who has won 7 races on SA turf. This is his first start since late July, when he was compromised by a slow break and finished nowhere. He runs well fresh, he has defeated better fields than this, and he will be rolling from behind. 7 NEON LIGHTS is speed, first start in three months for a high-percent stable; He will be pressured by 8 JIMMY BLUE JEANS. Late-runner 11 SBAGLIATO defeated the top choice two back, then was overmatched in a N1X. This claiming level is where he fits best.

PACE/SHAPE OF THE RACE: This figures to be a fast-and-furious mile. Its Kraken Time (10) and Great King (12) have the top early pace numbers (117 and 115) but weak late ratings (57 and 53), so a duel makes them vulnerable in the final furlong. Add Neon Lights (7) at 113 early, Jimmy Blue Jeans (8) at 103, and inside speed J T’s Watch (2) at 92, and the first turn should be crowded with multiple senders. That setup tilts the flow toward stalkers/closers. Don’t Swear Dave (6) and Castle Leoch (4) have balanced profiles to sit 3–5 lengths back and pounce. The best late kicks belong to Sbagliato (11) and Vantastic (5), with strong late figures (102 and 106), while Megayacht (1) also finishes. Expect them to be rolling if the half is honest-to-quick. Bottom line: pace pressure is high, leaders are likely to tire, and the race most likely collapses late—unless a speed clears comfortably, in which case Jimmy Blue Jeans or Neon Lights could hang on.

MOST LIKELY WINNER: Vantastic is the most likely winner because the projected hot pace plays straight into his strengths: he owns the best late TimeformUS figure in the field (106) and his last-five Beyer average (83.0) sits right on top of the 84 par. From post 5 he should get an efficient, ground-saving stalk-and-pounce trip under J. Hernandez, sitting midpack while the outside speeds cook each other, then finishing better than they will. Sbagliato is the other A: his late number (102) is next-best, and U. Rispoli is a matched rider for a timed turf run. While his last-five Beyer average (72.8) is lighter than Vantastic’s, today’s shape is his friend; he can tuck in from post 11, switch off, and launch when the leaders wobble. Bottom line: both profiles upgrade in a likely collapse, but Vantastic’s combination of superior recent Beyer base plus the top late engine gives him the edge, with Sbagliato the clear alternate.

POSSIBLE OVERLAY: If you want a live underdog, look hard at 1 Megayacht. He fits the projected meltdown: his late TimeformUS (98) is among the best of the non-favorites, and he won’t be wasting energy early with a 53 early figure. That profile plays perfectly if posts 7, 8, 10 and 12 push the fractions. His last-five Beyer average (78.4) isn’t far off the 84 par for this level, and a clean rail draw should let him tuck, save ground around both turns, and launch into tiring speeds. He’s priced to outrun odds (12-1 M/L), and the setup is the edge—he doesn’t need a new top so much as an honest half-mile. If the leaders carve up a 46-and-change type half, Megayacht is the kind who can be quietly fifth or sixth mid-race and finish best late. In a race where chaos is likely, he’s the right kind of closer at the right price.

RACE 6

Santa Anita, race 6, 8, dirt (fast), $5,000 claiming 3 yo and up.

PP HORSE; AGE-SEX; JOCKEY; TRAINER; M/L ODDS; LAST 5 BEYER AVG; EARLY PACE—LATE PACE; % CHANCE TO WIN.

5 Sydney Street; 6-G; A Escobedo up; R Hanson trainer; 7-2 M/L; 78.8; 86—91; 38%.
7 Upstart Yankee; 6-G; W Orantes up; B McLean trainer; 4-1 M/L; 62.0; 72—90; 18%.
8 Be Punctual; 5-G; K Frey up; R Hess Jr trainer; 3-1 M/L; 71.8; 104—61; 13%.
4 Big Spin; 6-G; K Kimura up; F Rodriguez trainer; 20-1 M/L; 63.8; 66—88; 10%.
3 American Empire; 5-G; A Lezcano up; V Brinkerhoff trainer; 10-1 M/L; 61.2; 72—86; 7%.
6 Sunset Storm; 4-G; A Bautista up; V Brinkerhoff trainer; 12-1 M/L; 59.2; 104—61; 7%.
2 Tamarando Star; 4-G; D Cohen up; J Bonde trainer; 9-2 M/L; 57.2; 86—63; 4%.
9 Chief Jackson; 7-G; E Garcia up; D Baker trainer; 30-1 M/L; 42.4; 103—49; 2%.
1 Mother’s Prayer; 5-G; T Baze up; S Knapp trainer; 5-1 M/L; 46.6; 104—53; 1%.

DAILY RACING FORM BLURB: The lowest claiming level at SA is $5k claiming. A big field entered this dirt mile at the low level, led by dropper 8 BE PUNCTUAL. He wired an $8k claiming mile three months ago at DMR and was claimed. The claim was voided after post-race veterinary examination, which gives his trainer Bob Hess Jr. license to drop off the win. ‘PUNCTUAL figures for a front-running/pace-pressing trip; any of his six starts this year against better company would be fast enough for this. 2 TAMARANDO STAR won a N2L claiming race last out at Los Alamitos. The final time and corresponding figure were low, but he has run faster in the past. Now that he has returned to form, he might handle the class raise from $6.25k claiming N2L to open $5k claiming. 5 SYDNEY STREET nosedives from $25k claiming turf races to run for a low tag on dirt. He also adds blinkers. His best turf races would be fast enough, but he has never raced on dirt.

PACE AND SHAPE OF THE RACE: Four genuine speeds are drawn across the gate, so this should be fast and contested from the break. Mother’s Prayer from the rail is basically forced to send; Sunset Storm has to hold position mid-pack or he’s hung; Be Punctual is the quickest of the outside speeds and will try to clear before the first turn; Chief Jackson adds outside pressure if he breaks. That’s a high pace-pressure count, which tilts the flow toward midpack stalkers and late runners. Tamarando Star profiles as a press/stalk type who can get first run if he stays out of the duel. The best setup belongs to the off-pace quartet: Sydney Street and Upstart Yankee sitting 3–6 lengths back with clean lanes, then American Empire and Big Spin grinding into a tiring group late. If one of the speeds shakes loose early, it’s likely Be Punctual; otherwise expect a collapsey last furlong that rewards patience and ground-saving trips.

MOST LIKELY WINNER: Sydney Street gets the right race. With multiple need-the-lead types signed on, the mile should cook early and tilt to a midpack stalker with a sustained finish—his exact profile. Drawn in five, he can tuck, avoid the inside scrum, and time a three-eighths move while the speeds empty. His recent Beyers stack up well for this $5k level, and his late-pace power is among the best here, matching the projected shape. He’s not dropping off a sketchy top, his spacing is sensible, and his work pattern signals steady fitness rather than band-aid speed. Only major concern is that it’s a very steep drop by Hanson from the $22.5k claiming level to this bottom-of-the-barrel $5k level. Weird move, and doubly so considering the horse has never run on dirt before. That said, he outclasses this bunch on paper, and if f the outside speed fails to clear cleanly, this collapses late—and Sydney Street’s balanced energy distribution through the far turn makes him the most likely to be rolling past tired frontrunners in the final sixteenth. If you don’t trust Sydney Street because of the class drop and turf-to-dirt questions, Be Punctual is the obvious choice.

POSSIBLE OVERLAY: Big Spin fits the chaos this race threatens to produce. With several committed speeds lined up, a mid-gate grinder who saves ground and keeps coming can fall into the exact right trip at a big number. From post 4 he doesn’t need brilliance—just a clean break, a pocket three to six lengths off, and patience while the leaders punish each other. He’s shown enough stamina at the mile to keep grinding when others shorten, and he isn’t as trip-fragile as the deep closers drawn wider. If the rail isn’t toxic, he can ride the fence into the far turn, tip out at the quarter pole, and pass tired horses late. You’re buying a plausible setup plus a clean, economical trip at an inflated price. The ask: he needs an honest pace and a seam; if he gets both, he can absolutely win this on efficiency and attrition.

RACE 7

Santa Anita, race 7, 10, turf (firm), $50k allowance optional claimer F&M 3 yo and up.

PP HORSE; AGE-SEX; JOCKEY; TRAINER; M/L ODDS; LAST 5 BEYER AVG; EARLY PACE—LATE PACE; % CHANCE TO WIN.

2 Eternal Reign; 4-F; J Hernandez up; P D’Amato trainer; 5-2 M/L; 79.6; 94—88; 28%.
6 Thebestisyettobe; 5-M; A Fresu up; P D’Amato trainer; 3-1 M/L; 76.6; 52—108; 25%.
5 Cornelia Fort; 5-M; T Baze up; A Mathis trainer; 7-2 M/L; 76.4; 83—81; 18%.
8 Sakura Flavor; 5-M; U Rispoli up; P Gallagher trainer; 20-1 M/L; 74.8; 71—85; 11%.
4 Hey Jessie; 3-F; M Smith up; S McCarthy trainer; 6-1 M/L; 70.2; 51—108; 8%.
7 Ruby Cantu; 4-F; K Frey up; P Capestro trainer; 8-1 M/L; 67.0; 78—82; 6%.
1 Sweet Delta Dawn; 4-F; T Pereira up; R Baltas trainer; 30-1 M/L; 68.8; 105—68; 4%.

DAILY RACING FORM BLURB: D’Amato-trained stablemates 6 THEBESTISYETTOBE and 2 ETERNAL REIGN are tough to separate in this N1X at a mile and one-quarter on turf; they finished two-three this summer at DMR. The call is THEBESTISYETTOBE, who subsequently had no shot in a turf mile dominated by speed. THEBESTISYETTOBE had too much ground to make up and split the field. Now she stretches back to a long distance at which she is proven; both wins in the U.S. were over the SA course. ETERNAL REIGN has not started since the mid-August race in which she was only a length behind the top choice. Off two months, working regularly, she might like this slightly shorter distance. A miler throughout her career, she backs up from 11 furlongs to 10, in a race that starts downhill. It is not a “true” mile and one-quarter race. That may benefit ‘REIGN. 4 HEY JESSIE is a 3yo facing older following a tough-trip seventh in an age-restricted N1X mile. She might be better than back-to-back seventh-place finishes suggest.

PACE AND SHAPE OF THE RACE: From the rail, Sweet Delta Dawn owns the top TimeformUS early pace (105) and is the most likely leader into the first turn. Eternal Reign (94 early) adds blinkers and should press from just outside, keeping the tempo honest. Cornelia Fort (83 early) profiles as the pocket stalker, with Ruby Cantu (78) and Sakura Flavor (71) settling mid-flight. The two strongest closers are Thebestisyettobe and Hey Jessie (both 108 late), who’ll try to unwind from the second half of the pack. With the rail at 0 feet and a modest field size, trip efficiency matters: inside speed can control if the 1 gets comfortable, but sustained pressure from the 2 would tilt flow toward the late kickers. Baseline call: moderate to honest fractions, tactical types getting first run, with the deep closers most dangerous if the 1 and 2 spar through the mile split.

MOST LIKELY WINNER: Eternal Reign is the right favourite because her profile fits this trip and today’s shape. She owns legit tactical speed (TimeformUS 94 early, 88 late), so she can sit second flight and pounce rather than get cooked up front. She already proved stamina when battling through 11 furlongs at Del Mar in August and now shortens to a more forgiving 10, exactly the pattern you want. The worktab is sharp (SA 5f in :59 and 1:00), signaling she’s held form during the freshening, and she returns to the track where she’s done her best work (Santa Anita 5: 1-2-1). Her recent Beyers are consistently around 80 at this exact level, and she’s repeatedly been right there late—no guessing required about class or finish. She draws post 2 with J. J. Hernandez up for Phil D’Amato, who is having a strong meet, an A-team pairing for a stalking trip behind the rail speed. As the 5-2 morning-line choice, she simply offers the fewest questions: tactical pace, proven stamina, positive spacing, and the right rider/trainer to execute.

POSSIBLE OVERLAY: Sakura Flavor makes real price sense at 20-1. She isn’t flashy on raw figures (TimeformUS 71—85), but she’s proven at the course and, crucially, at this exact 10-furlong trip: she saved ground and finished third going 1¼ miles here in Jan 2024, and her record shows two in-the-money finishes from three tries at the distance. She’s a consistent Santa Anita turf trier (eight local starts with four board hits) and lands a turf ace in Rispoli, who’s been winning at a strong clip this season. The projected shape helps: Sweet Delta Dawn has the biggest early gas and Eternal Reign should keep her honest, which can set up for a patient, covered-up mid-pack trip where Sakura Flavor’s steady late run is most effective. At the same class level where she’s been holding her own, and with her distance credential already stamped at this course, she doesn’t need a giant step forward—just a clean trip and a well-timed split—to blow up the tote at a number.

RACE 8

Santa Anita, race 8, 5.5 furlongs, dirt (fast), $12,500 maiden claiming 3-5 yo

PP HORSE; AGE-SEX; JOCKEY; TRAINER; M/L ODDS; LAST 5 BEYER AVG; EARLY PACE—LATE PACE; % CHANCE TO WIN.

9 Beneficial; 4-G; K Kimura up; T Yakteen trainer; 2-1 M/L; 59.8; 110—59; 28%.
5 Seattle Surf; 5-G; A Escobedo up; K Headley trainer; 5-2 M/L; 50.0; 112—25; 24%.
4 Cancun Native; 3-G; G Franco up; A Marquez trainer; 6-1 M/L; 49.0; 52—78; 14%.
7 Irish Whiskey; 3-G; W Antongrgi III up; K Bainum trainer; 6-1 M/L; 44.0; 87—62; 12%.
6 Far Over Loaded; 3-G; A L Bautista up; F Rondan trainer; 8-1 M/L; 44.6; 94—32; 8%.
8 Bang and a Boom; 4-G; D Cohen up; T McCanna trainer; 8-1 M/L; 41.6; 68—56; 6%.
3 Tame The Tiger; 3-G; P Flores up; J Raudales trainer; 30-1 M/L; 23.5; 77—42; 3%.
10 He’squite Mischief; 4-G; A Lezcano up; E Alvarez trainer; 20-1 M/L; 28.0; 91—33; 3%.
1 Kiddo Light; 3-C; S Barandela up; J Valdez trainer; 20-1 M/L; 33.0; 77—55; 1%.
2 Always A Miracle; 3-C; C Herrera up; G Vallejo trainer; 30-1 M/L; N/A; N/A; 1%.

DAILY RACING FORM BLURB: Maidens run for a $12.5k claim tag; class dropper 5 SEATTLE SURF can win if he puts away fellow dropper 9 BENEFICIAL. It’s a close call between the pair, but ‘SURF might be slightly quicker. He set the pace to deep stretch both recent starts at DMR and now drops to the lowest level of career. Come and catch him. BENEFICIAL adds blinkers and drops from maiden-50. He figures to be forwardly placed with blinkers added and would be among the first to pounce if the top choice does not stay the trip. The longshot 1 KIDDO LIGHT benefits by the drop from maiden-50; his odds will be sky-high.

PACE AND SHAPE OF THE RACE: Blazing early. 5 Seattle Surf (Early 112) is the likeliest sender, but 9 Beneficial (110) draws outside with the speed to press or sit a length off; 6 Far Over Loaded (94) and 10 He’squite Mischief (91) ensure no breathers, making a four-way tussle likely through the opening furlong. Expect those speeds to feel it late—each owns a soft late figure (Seattle Surf 25; Far Over Loaded 32; He’squite Mischief 33). The setup tilts toward the best finishers in the second flight: 4 Cancun Native (Late 78) and 7 Irish Whiskey (Late 62) should sit midpack and pounce as the pace collapses, while Beneficial’s balanced 110—59 makes an outside press-and-pounce trip the most efficient. 8 Bang And A Boom lands midpack; 1 Kiddo Light and 3 Tame the Tiger are deeper and need a total meltdown. There’s a ton of suspect early speed, reinforcing a flow that favors late energy—unless Seattle Surf clears clean, which is less likely with outside speed drawn over him.

MOST LIKELY WINNER: Beneficial projects the cleanest, most efficient trip. He owns a strong TimeformUS balance (Early 110—Late 59), fast enough to sit just outside the burners yet with more finish than the pure speeds that figure to cave late. From post 9 he’s drawn over the other pace, which means he can press without eating kickback, keep Seattle Surf honest, and get first run while the closers still need racing luck. His worktab screams ready: three recent 5f drills at Santa Anita, including a 1:00 move (7/89) bracketed by 1:01s, a classic tighten-up pattern for a sharp sprinter. The $12.5k maiden-claiming level fits his Beyer profile, his rider (Kimura) has tactical hands to execute a press-and-pounce, and Tim Yakteen places him where his speed is an edge rather than a liability. In a field with soft late figures among the speeds and unreliable finishers behind them, the outside, tactical pace horse with fitness and reliable numbers is the percentage play—Beneficial.

POSSIBLE OVERLAY: Cancun Native looks like the right kind of off-price stab if the speed duel materialises. He owns the best finisher’s profile in the field with a 78 late TimeformUS figure paired to a manageable 52 early—enough pace to stay in touch without getting cooked, then real punch when the burners tire. From post 4 he can save ground behind 5/9/6/10, slip outside turning for home, and get first run on deeper closers. His first-start Beyer (49) is perfectly serviceable at the $12.5k maiden-claiming level, and he doesn’t need a giant new top—just the race to come back to him. If Beneficial and Seattle Surf hook up early, Cancun Native’s combination of inside trip, late energy, and fair price makes him an upset candidate and a smart win/place and vertical-key alternative to the chalk.

RACE 9

Santa Anita, race 9, 8 furlongs, turf (firm), state-bred maiden special weight 2 yo.

PP HORSE; AGE-SEX; JOCKEY; TRAINER; M/L ODDS; LAST 5 BEYER AVG; EARLY PACE—LATE PACE; % CHANCE TO WIN.

2 Booked Clubhouse; 2-G; K Frey up; S McCarthy trainer; 5-2 M/L; 59.0; 83—53; 24%.
3 Unrivaled Time; 2-C; D A Herrera up; L Powell trainer; 9-2 M/L; 49.0; 34—96; 20%.
12 Columnist; 2-G; W R Orantes up; T Yakteen trainer; 10-1 M/L; 45.0; 95—47; 16%.
8 Doing Time; 2-C; A L Bautista up; F Rondan trainer; 4-1 M/L; 45.8; 78—62; 12%.
6 Off The Bench; 2-G; K Kimura up; A Tekos Jr trainer; 8-1 M/L; 39.5; 92—42; 8%.
4 Bandolero; 2-G; R Gonzalez up; P Eurton trainer; 12-1 M/L; 41.7; 64—64; 6%.
7 What A Gift; 2-G; W Antongeorgi III up; D Pederson trainer; 8-1 M/L; 43.0; 52—52; 4%.
13 Tascadero; 2-G; T C Baze up; S J Scolamieri trainer; 6-1 M/L; N/A; N/A; 3%.
11 John Metcalfe; 2-C; J J Hernandez up; C A Lewis trainer; 15-1 M/L; 32.0; 61—45; 2%.
5 Passion D Oro; 2-C; A Lezcano up; A C Garcia trainer; 30-1 M/L; 42.0; 66—66; 2%.
1 Cornealeusthegreat; 2-G; T C Baze up; E Alvarez trainer; 30-1 M/L; 37.0; 59—63; 1%.
10 Tonys Fever; 2-G; K E Orozco up; V Belvoir trainer; 12-1 M/L; N/A; N/A; 1%.
14 Rostron; 2-G; E Maldonado up; R Hanson trainer; 20-1 M/L; 30.0; N/A; 1%.
9 Mojo Mo; 2-G; D Cohen up; V Belvoir trainer; 50-1 M/L; 8.5; 66—32; 0%

DAILY RACING FORM BLURB: The fifth-place debut by 3 UNRIVALED TIME was much better than the finish position and sets up the Cal-bred 2yo for a maiden victory second time out. He was well-bet in his debut at this mile distance and ran well despite trouble. He was slow away, trailed the field, got stalled in traffic on the far turn, raced greenly, finished well, and galloped out with run. Solid debut by a Cal-bred sired by high-profile Kentucky stallion Not This Time. 2 BOOKED CLUBHOUSE stretches out with a pair of even-paced sprints under his belt. Sired by Clubhouse Ride and a sibling to a pair of minor sprint stakes winners, ‘CLUBHOUSE runs like a 2yo who will relish two turns. 7 WHAT A GIFT showed ability rallying to second in a dirt sprint that was his career debut. 12 COLUMNIST got an easy lead second time out and nearly stole it, finishing third int the same race the top choice exits. Tough outside post for COLUMNIST, however.

PACE AND SHAPE OF THE RACE: Expect an honest-to-fast tempo into the first turn. Columnist (12) owns the top TimeformUS early 95 and just “dueled inside, cleared, nailed” at a mile, so he’s the most likely pace setter from an outside draw. Off The Bench (6) brings a 92 early figure on the stretch-out; blinkers come off and both prior lines note slow starts, so he may attend rather than blaze. Booked Clubhouse (2) is tactical (83 early) and can secure a pocketed press/tracking trip from the inside; Doing Time (8) (78 early) should stalk just behind. Bandolero (4) and Passion D Oro (5) sit midpack; the rest appear slower early. If Columnist has to work to clear, the half could be sharp and tilt the flow to a finisher. Unrivaled Time (3) owns by far the best late figure (96) and profiles as the main beneficiary if the speed softens; his debut noted “off slow” and traffic, so a clean run is key. If Columnist clears without heavy pressure, his modest late 47 still leaves some late vulnerability, but a breather could carry him a long way. Trip and ground loss matter; inside tacticals like 2—and 3 with cover—get first run.

MOST LIKELY WINNER: Booked Clubhouse looks most likely because he brings paired 59 Beyers in two turf starts—strong, forward figures for this group—and a profile that screams “right trip” stretching to a mile. He showed tactical speed and professionalism in both outings: a debut second despite a bit-slow break and a 3-to-4-wide move where he led inside the final sixteenth, then a follow-up 6f try where he saved ground and re-rallied late, suggesting stamina and tractability for today’s two turns. The TimeformUS 83 early/53 late blend positions him to sit just behind the likely outside speed (Columnist posts a 95 early and dueled/cleared last time), giving Booked Clubhouse first run into the lane. He also gets a strong rider/trainer combo that has clicked at Santa Anita (19% strike) and overall in 2024-25 (18%), plus the barn’s turf-route numbers are solid, tempering concern about the stretch-out. With the main closer Unrivaled Time needing pace and a clean trip from midpack, Booked Clubhouse’s inside draw and tactical gears make him the most logical to seize the race flow and finish.

POSSIBLE OVERLAY: Columnist (12) at a double-digit morning line looks like the right kind of price play. He owns the top TimeformUS early figure in the field (95) and just showed the right behavior for today’s mile: he dueled, cleared, and only got nailed late going this trip on turf. If he breaks clean and crosses smoothly from the outside, he can control things up front or sit just off any inside pop, and that alone gives him a win path most rivals don’t have. The late figure is modest, but that matters less if he secures separation turning for home; firm turf and a rail at 0 accentuate tactical speed and position. With Booked Clubhouse likely to track rather than hound, Columnist can dictate terms and make them catch him. The risk is obvious—pressure could soften him—but at the price you’re being paid for the primary pace advantage in a maiden of mostly unproven closers.